Category Archives: Publications and projects

Devo Max and Devo More

There are two myths going around about what happens following a No vote in the Scottish referendum.

First, it’s said that plans for ‘more devolution’ are unclear. They are not. The three pro-UK parties have different schemes for them, it’s true, but there is a substantial degree of common ground between them. All involve devolution of most or all of personal income tax to the Scottish Parliament. Labour and Conservatives both support forms of welfare devolution, which – among other things – would have enabled Scotland to opt out of the Housing Benefit change that led to the ‘bedroom tax’. The differences do need to be resolved, but there is also a clear route for that, endorsed by the UK Prime Minister in his Aberdeen speech as well as other party leaders: an early process of cross-party negotiations, leading to a white paper by November 2014, publication of draft legislation in early 2015, followed by incorporation into manifestoes for the May 2015 general election, which will give the mandate for delivery of them.  That level of political commitment is not easily ducked – and ironically it is perhaps the Conservatives who have the greatest short-term political interest in securing their delivery.

It’s also untrue that these are last-minute proposals All these schemes have drawn on the work I have done with IPPR, and particularly Guy Lodge, through the Devo More project since late 2012. They reflect many months of work and careful analysis of the implications of further devolution, not just for Scotland but for other parts of the UK as well – they haven’t been suddenly ‘pulled out of a hat’.

Details of the key publications from Devo More can be found here, here and here (and there are posts about the financing paper here, the welfare one here and how the programme fits various political traditions here).

Second, it’s suggested that these proposals amount to ‘Devo max’. They don’t. This is usually a rather lazy shorthand from journalists or politicians who haven’t understood what is actually on the table. The extra-devolution schemes, or scheme, will substantially enhance the autonomy of a devolved Scotland within the UK. But the Scottish Parliament is already responsible for about 70 per cent of all public spending in Scotland. The Devo More proposals will take Scotland as close to home rule as is possible in a single state.  They will deliver what Scots had clearly shown they’ve wanted for a decade or more – greater self-government in the Union – in a way that works with the interests of people in other parts of the UK, rather than against them.

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Filed under Devolution finance, Publications and projects, Referendums, Scotland, Scottish independence, Westminster

The Strathclyde Commission report

The Scottish Conservatives have today published the report of the Strathclyde Commission, their review of how Scottish devolution should change if there is a No vote in the September referendum. I’ve been an adviser to the commission since it was set up, and it has been a great pleasure to advise Lord Strathclyde and his fellow commissioners, and the party more generally, and to help them consider what can (and what cannot, or cannot sensibly) be done by way of enhancing devolution.

The report recommends the devolution of income tax, including the power to set the rates and thresholds between bands, as well as some smaller taxes, and to look at assigning a proportion of the proceeds of VAT.  It also proposes devolution of attendance allowance, housing benefit if that is possible given the Universal Credit, and a general devolved power to supplement UK-level welfare.

The report is available from the Scottish Conservatives’ website here. Their press statement about the report is here, and Ruth Davidson’s article for Scotland on Sunday on the plans is here.  Sunday’s Telegraph trail for it (pretty well informed) is here.

The impact of the work I’ve been doing with Guy Lodge in the IPPR’s Devo More project is palpable in the Strathclyde proposals. This is clearly a model for enhanced devolution and – as I argued in my chapter for the IPPR’s book Democracy in Britain – works from the point of view of all three major political traditions, with some variations.

Those interested in the effect of the Strathclyde proposals may find it useful to look at two tables I’ve prepared.  These can be downloaded HERE. Table 1 shows how much of the Scottish Government’s budget would come from devolving the various taxes considered in the report, without any change to its current functions. Table 2 shows the proportion of its budget it would generate from tax revenues if the measures of welfare devolution that it contemplates also took place. In the case of tax revenues, it assumes that Scottish tax levels of devolved taxes would remain the same as those set by the UK Government, so in that sense it should be regarded as an assessment of fiscal capacity rather than a straightforward amount of money. The assumption that 10 points of VAT (rather than some other figure) is mine, and made mainly as that is the figure used in Funding Devo More which involved some complicated arithmetic given changing rates of VAT between 2007 and 2010.

UPDATE: There’s news coverage from BBC News here, and a Guardian liveblog (quoting this post!) here.  The Guardian news story is here, a blog post by Severin Carrell here, the FT‘s are here and here (note: registration/paywall), and the Telegraph’s (emphasising David Cameron’s support) here.

 

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Filed under Conservatives, Publications and projects, Scotland

‘Devo More’ seminar in Cardiff, 11 June 2013

I’m giving a seminar on Devo More and what it would mean for Wales in Cardiff on the morning of Wednesday 11 June. The full title is ‘Devo More: How fiscal and welfare devolution can benefit Wales and strengthen the Union’, and it is part of the UK Changing Union programme based by the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, under the aegis of the National Assembly’s Cross Party Group on the Changing Union. (Those who haven’t seen them can find the Devo More and Welfare paper here, and Funding Devo More here.)
The seminar will take place at 8.30 am in conference room 24 in Tŷ Hywel, with tea, coffee and pastries provided. To book a place, please email info@ukchangingunion.org.uk.

UPDATE, 12 June: The slides from Tuesday’s talk are now available HERE.

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Filed under Devolution finance, Events, Publications and projects, Wales

Guardian ‘Comment is Free’ piece on ‘What happens after a Scottish independence Yes vote?’

Drawing on my Belfast lecture, I’ve a piece in the Guardian‘s ‘Comment is Free’ section on what would happen following a Yes vote in September’s Scottish independence referendum.  I argue that the difficulties with a long transition are very great indeed, and that there are compelling reasons to ensure Scotland becomes independent by the time of the May 2015 UK general election if there is a Yes vote.  That  would be formidably difficult – not only are there are tough and complicated issues to be negotiated and resolved  between the governments, but also legislation needs to be passed by both Scottish and UK Parliaments (and the UK Government would need to pass a paving bill too).  But the problems caused by a longer transition are even more formidable, in my view.

The CiF piece can be found here.

 

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Filed under Implications of Scottish independence, Publications and projects, Referendums, Scotland, Scottish independence, Westminster, Whitehall

Devo More and Welfare

Our paper on devolving welfare, snappily entitled Devo More and Welfare, is now available on the IPPR website here.

Our concern in making these proposals has been to formulate workable proposals which preserve important parts of the UK and its ‘social union’ as it presently is. There’s a lot of material in the paper discussing this, and why risk-sharing at a UK level is in the interests of all parts of the UK.  Constraints also arise from the existing pattern of welfare spending and the structures that support that – the role of the National Insurance fund when it comes to contributory benefits, for example.  However, we think it would be wrong to treat that social union as rigid; sharing risks for big things like old age or unemployment doesn’t mean other things can’t and shouldn’t be changed.  We argue for recognition of the role of devolved governments when it comes to providing welfare benefits, bearing in mind the large role they already play in providing public services that are part of the welfare state – an approach we call ‘welfare pluralism’.

We endorse, broadly, changes in three areas.  First, housing benefit should be devolved, given how closely it is linked to the devolved function of social housing. This would enable devolved governments to improve housing policy, by joining up housing benefit with already-devolved functions, and giving them more flexibility in how they invest in providing social housing.

Second, we support devolution of functions where this will improve social investment.  This applies to two areas in particular: the Work Programme and welfare-to-work, and childcare.  Devolving the Work Programme would involve a form of executive devolution, with Job Seekers Allowance and Employment Support Allowance remaining paid on a UK-wide basis. Childcare powers are already in devolved hands; the question is how that should be funded, and here fiscal devolution (as we recommended in Funding Devo More) addresses the problem.  Devolving the childcare element of the Working Tax Credit would support this.

Third, we support a power for devolved governments to supplement UK level welfare, and removing existing legal restrictions on devolved governments providing cash benefits, provided they do so within devolved resources.  This would certainly simplify action like that taken by the Scottish Parliament to redress the ‘bedroom tax’/spare room subsidy, and would enable a much wider range of possibilities for devolved governments that wished to undertake them.

Welfare devolution should not simply be about handing over more powers to devolved governments.  It is about improving how devolution works, but even more importantly about improving social outcomes across the UK.  This can produce benefits for all; it is about a win-win game not ‘making concessions’.  It is also for all devolved governments; what we propose would be as applicable in Wales and Northern Ireland as in Scotland.  It is also, importantly, about responsibility; in particular, we argue that fiscal devolution is a necessary prerequisite before devolution of welfare functions can take place.

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Filed under Policy issues, Publications and projects

‘Devo More and Welfare’ in ‘Scotland on Sunday’

The paper Guy Lodge and I have written on Devo More and Welfare as part of the wider Devo More project is published on Tuesday.   There’s extensive coverage of it in today’s Scotland on Sunday to whom we’ve given a preview of the paper, including a news article here and a comment piece by Guy and me here.

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Filed under Northern Ireland, Policy issues, Publications and projects, Scotland, Wales

Devo More as a plan for a revivified Union

Monday’s Herald had a story based on an interview with me (here), based on something I’ve written as part of the IPPR’s Devo More project.  In this paper, I set out the Devo More strategy as a whole, and explain how it fits with the political traditions of each of the major UK-wide parties.  There are two key arguments: much the same package of devolution serves the interests of all three traditions and the parties that currently embody them pretty well, and that this approach to further devolution will reinforce the Union not weaken it.

I’ve written a comment piece for the Herald which summarises the chapter and its overall argument.  That can be found here, and its text is also below.  The chapter on which all this is based can be found on the IPPR’s website here.

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Filed under Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Publications and projects, Scotland