The last Scottish opinion polling

Weber Shandwick deserve credit for two things in the election campaign, through their ‘Scotland Votes’ website.  One is doing a ‘poll of polls’ analysis of opinion polls, and the other is developing software that enables sensible predictions of those results in the number of Parliamentary seats.  Their last poll is available here, and suggests a strong plurality of seats for the SNP: 59 , compared to 42 for Labour, 12 Conservatives and just seven Lib Dems.  There would also be eight Greens and one independent (Margo Macdonald).  There are problems with this approach, including the fact it includes historic polls, so reflects shifts in public opinion from some time ago, but it still gives an overview of public opinion.  How accurate that is will be clear by Friday afternoon!

One interesting piece of arithmetic: that would give the SNP and Greens together a majority, enough to carry a referendum bill through Holyrood.

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Filed under Elections, Labour, Public opinion, Referendums, Scotland, SNP

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